A month has gone by since the last earnings report for The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc (PNC Quick QuotePNC - Free Report) . Shares have added about 0.5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

PNC Financial Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates on Lower Costs

PNC Financial pulled off fourth-quarter 2020 positive earnings surprise of 23% on prudent expense management. Earnings per share of $3.26 surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.65. Also, the bottom line was 9.8% higher than the prior-year level.

Decline in expenses and recapture of provisions came as tailwind. Also, capital position remained strong. However, decline in revenues on lower interest income and fee income were concerns. Also, contraction of margin and fall in loans were undermining factors.

Net income in the fourth quarter jumped 5.4% year over year to $1.46 billion.

In full-year 2020, net income came in at $7.56 billion or $16.96 per share, up from the prior year’s $5.42 billion or $11.39 per share. Full-year earnings also outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $16.40.

Segment-wise, quarterly net income in Corporate & Institutional Banking and Retail banking climbed 21.3% and 53%, year over year, respectively. However, the Asset Management Group and Other segments registered decline of 9.9% and 63.5%, respectively.

Revenues and Loans Decline, Expenses Fall

In 2020, revenues were $16.9 billion, up slightly year over year. The top line also matched with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Total revenues in the reported quarter came in at $4.21 billion, down 3% year over year. The top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.14 billion.

Net interest income declined 3% from the year-ago quarter to $2.42 billion. The fall is attributable to lower yields on earning assets, partially offset by lower rates on deposits and borrowing costs and higher average earning assets. However, the net interest margin contracted 46 basis points to 2.32% due to lower yields on earning assets, partially muted by lower funding costs.

Non-interest income was down 3% year over year to $1.78 billion on lower service charges on deposits and other income. This was partially muted by higher asset management, corporate services and residential mortgage.

PNC Financial’s non-interest expenses totaled $2.71 billion, down 2% from the year-ago figure. This decline primarily resulted from the fall in marketing and equipment costs, partly offset by higher personnel expenses.

Efficiency ratio was 64%, stable year over year.

As of Dec 31, 2020, total loans were down 3% sequentially to $241.9 billion. However, total deposits improved 3% to $365.3 billion.

Credit Quality: A Mixed Bag

Non-performing assets increased 33% year over year to $2.34 billion. Also, allowance for loan and lease losses more than doubled to $5.36 billion.

However, the company reported provisions recapture of $254 million against provisions of credit losses of $221 million in the year-earlier quarter. Net charge-offs were $229 million, up 10%.

Steady Capital Position

As of Dec 31, 2020, the Basel III common equity Tier 1 capital ratio was 12.1% compared with 9.5% as of Dec 31, 2019.

Return on average assets and average common equity came in at 1.24% and 11.16%, respectively, compared with 1.33% and 11.54% witnessed in the prior-year quarter.

Outlook

First-Quarter 2021

The company expects average loans to remain stable or decline modestly, sequentially. PPP loans are expected to be up approximately $2 billion.

Management expects NII to decline 1% sequentially, which includes the impact of two fewer days in the first quarter. Excluding the impact of PPP, NII is expected to decline about 3%.

Fee income is expected to decline in mid-single digits sequentially.

Non-interest expenses are expected to increase 1% sequentially.

Net loan charge-offs are estimated in the range of $200-$250 million.

Full-Year 2021

Average loan growth is anticipated to be down in the low single-digit range.

Management expects total revenues to remain stable year over year, on forecasts of lower NII.

Expenses are also expected to be stable. Effective tax rate might be about 17%.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted 14.53% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.